[German]ESET says, currently 32 million systems with Windows 10 are still in use in Germany. The security company warns of a worst-case scenario, as support for Windows 10 will expire in October 2025. A "switchover" is being propagated. I am of the opinion that Windows 10 users can look forward to October 2025 in a very relaxed manner.
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ESET warns about EOL of Windows 10
On January 2, 2024, German branch of security company ESET published a press release on the end of support for Windows 10, which was widely picked up by the media. Even public television reported that 32 million Windows 10 systems were still in operation in Germany and that there was a threat of major problems. The systems would be exposed to increased "cyber risks" from October 2025 because there would be no more updates.
The ESET press release asks: "Is Germany facing a security disaster in a few months?" ESET states that with 32 million Windows computers in Germany, 64 percent of the Windows population is running the Windows 10 operating system. The end of support for the system, which will soon be ten years old, has long been announced by Microsoft for October 14, 2025.
Windows market share 12.2024
ESET also states that the newer Windows 11 currently runs on only around 33 percent of devices (16.5 million devices). Furthermore, there are still over one million Windows dinosaurs running Windows 8.1, 8, 7 or even XP.
I had shown the current figures for operating system distribution from Statcounter in the article Operating system/Windows share (End of December 2024). It clearly looks like the switch to Windows 11 has not yet taken place. On the contrary, it even looks like users are switching back from Windows 11 to Windows 10.
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Microsoft cannot really gain traction with Windows 11. In addition to the increased hardware requirements for Windows 11, which are not met by many Windows 10 computers, the operating system also seems to have somehow been developed without users' needs in mind. Numerous bugs, annoying adverts on the desktop and Microsoft's bullying mean that many users are not enthusiastic about Windows 11.
Do I really have to replace Windows 10 in October 2025?
The comments in the ESET press release by its Director of Marketing and Communication DACH, Thorsten Urbanski, are alarmist in my view: "It's five to twelve to avoid a security fiasco in 2025. We strongly advise all users not to wait until October, but to switch to Windows 11 immediately or choose an alternative operating system if their device cannot be updated to the latest Windows operating system. Otherwise, users expose themselves to significant security risks and make themselves vulnerable to dangerous cyberattacks and data loss."
Urbanski advises companies to plan the changeover at an early stage. Extending support is costly. Simply leaving the devices running is grossly negligent. It is precisely these outdated systems that are more susceptible to cyber attacks. At worst, these computers are the starting point for data loss, espionage and ransomware attacks. In the event of damage, insurance companies can even refuse to settle claims because the state of the art has not been adhered to. Up to this point, I can still go along – but do I really have to get a Windows 11 computer or switch to Linux in October 2025?
Use the ESU support extension
One option is to book the Extended Security Update Program (ESU). Microsoft will provide ESU subscribers with Windows 10 22H2 security updates for a further three years (see Windows 10: Surprise, there is an ESU support extension; also for private users).
This ESU program is primarily aimed at corporate customers. In the first year, the ESU renewal costs 61 US dollars per device – I addressed this in the blog post Windows 10: Prices for Extended Security Updates announced. As of October 31, 2024, Microsoft has stated in this document that the sale of ESU licenses will be possible from November 1, 2024. The ESU license does not start until October 2025 and guarantees updates for one year until October 2026. This can be extended twice in companies.
Private users can book a one-year support extension with security updates from Microsoft from October 2025. The price will probably be around 30 euros – see my article Microsoft wants 30 US-$ for 1 year Windows 10 consumer support extension. This would mean peace of mind until October 2026 and Windows 10 would continue to be protected by security updates.
0patch helps for five years
I would like to take this opportunity to remind private users of the offer from ACROS Security. The Slovenian security vendor provides micro-patches to close vulnerabilities in Windows 10 for at least another five years.
I explained the general conditions – there is a free and a paid offer for a small fee – in the blog post Windows 10: 0patch provides 5 years of additional support. Just this much from my side: I have been following the work of ACROS Security for years – they are often on hand with fixes long before Microsoft reacts. I have used the 0patch solutions on several Windows 7 systems so that I was able to secure the operating system without ESU licenses.
Just take a look at the LTSC variants
I've mentioned it several times here in the blog: Microsoft offers so-called LTSC variants of Windows 10 Enterprise, which receive support for 10 years. For example, you can check whether it is possible to switch to Windows 10 Enterprise LTSC 2021. This operating system receives five years of support and will not be discontinued until January 12, 2027.
Things are even more relaxed with Windows 10 IoT Enterprise LTSC 2021, which receives 10 years of support and will be provided with security updates until January 13, 2032. Internally, this is a fully-fledged Windows 10, but it has been stripped of such nice gimmicks as the Store and apps. Microsoft has relaxed the criteria for licensing an IoT version in 2023 (see my blog post Windows 11 23H2 announced for 4th Q. 2023; Windows 10 IoT Enterprise LTSC 2021 starting Aug. 1, 2023 from August 1, 2023), so that license sales are no longer tied to hardware purchases. If you have a Windows 10 Pro license, you can switch to IoT Enterprise – corresponding licenses will be offered in stores.
I've been blogging here on Windows 10 IoT Enterprise LTSC 2019 for over a year now and I wouldn't want to be without the operating system – finally a Windows that's so easy to work with.
However, if it does end up being Windows 11, you don't have to submit to Microsoft's bullying. Because there is also an IoT Enterprise version of Windows 11, which then gets 10 years of support. Windows 11 IoT Enterprise LTSC 2024 will be supported until October 10, 2034, so there is still a lot of water left in the Rhine until then. Who knows what will happen then. Personally, I would wait a little longer with Windows 11 IoT Enterprise LTSC 2024 until Microsoft has fixed the biggest bugs. But there's still some time until October 2025.
Switching to Linux
Finally, I would like to point out at this point that you can also switch to a Linux distribution with older hardware that is not compatible with Windows 11. The Windows PCs often used in private households with email client, browser and an office should be easy to switch to Linux (e.g. Mint 22).
My 2 cents
When I look at the above outline, there is no reason to take the alarmist tone of the ESET marketing boss. I am of the opinion that both companies and private users can look forward to October 2025 as the end of support in a very relaxed manner. Because there are simply enough alternatives to continue to operate Windows 10 systems securely.
Similar articles:
Windows 10: Surprise, there is an ESU support extension; also for private users
Windows 10: Prices for Extended Security Updates announced
Microsoft wants 30 US-$ for 1 year Windows 10 consumer support extension
Windows 10: 0patch provides 5 years of additional support
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There are alternatives, you are correct.
But let's be honest, a lot of small and midsize businesses will just do nothing about the EOL of Windows 10. And for them the "alarmist tone" might be a good thing to persuade them to do something before the EOL date.
Furthermore, with new legislation from the EU (NIS2), a lot of companies have no choice but to make sure they run an OS that the vendor supports with security updates.