Will Microsoft drop Windows 10 V1809?

Microsoft is heading to release Windows 10 Version 1903 soon (I guess in April 2019). But what's with Windows 10 Version 1809? It seems that Microsoft tries to drop this version and let Windows 10 V1803 users upgrade directly to V1903.

Microsoft released Windows 10 Version 1809 in October 2018, and now are six months gone. But this update had to be withdrawn for weeks and later on, several patches has to be released, to fix numerous bugs and upgrade blockers, as you can read in several posts here in the blog.

It has already been announced several times by Microsoft, that Windows 10 version 1809 is 'now generally available and will be distributed to all compatible machines'. I had discussed this in the blog post Windows 10 V1809 announced as 'general available' from January 2019. Microsoft has also updated KB article 4028685 on March 20, 2019. They announces that Windows 10 will automatically download the October 2018 update to appropriate devices if the automatic updates are enabled in the Windows Update settings.

However, Windows 10 version 1809 does not arrive on the machines. I am reluctant to blog about the distribution of Windows 10 versions based on AdDuplex reports (too insecure). But AdDuplex has published its monthly report for March 2019, which provides an interesting insight into the Windows 10 distribution. The figures was calculated from more than 5,000 Microsoft Store apps that contain the AdDuplex SDK v2 or higher and provide data on the Windows 10 operating system version. The values refer to March 26, 2019.

(Windows 10 distribution March 2019, Source: AdDuplex)

Even if you don't think the numbers are accurate, the latest AdDuplex report on the distribution of Windows 10 versions or the diagram above still provides an interesting trend. Windows 10 Version 1809 runs after 6 months only on about 1/4 of all Windows 10 machines. While Windows 10 Version 1803, which was released a year ago, is installed on about 2/3 of the systems. Since the last AdDuplex report in February, Windows 10 V1809 has only increased by about 5% in distribution.

On the other hand, since Microsoft always writes that the Windows 10 October 2018 update is 'automatically distributed to suitable machines', something might be wrong. Either the AdDuplex numbers are completely wrong (I don't think it's likely, even if the values were wrong by 10%), or Microsoft's statement about the general availability isn't true (I think it's likely). I believe, that Microsoft declares that Windows 10 V1809 is generally released. But the distribution is made with 'handbrake on' so that only a few machines get the update. Since Windows 10 V1903 is expected to be released as a spring update in April 2019, Windows 10 V1809 is unlikely to become widely distributed. It will be the 'Failure Feature Update' in the annals, I guess. So I believe, users will upgrade from Windows 10 V1803 to V1903.

BTW: Microsoft's marketing chief Chris Capossela has warned all employees not to participate in April Fools' Day pranks. So it's unlikely, that Microsoft release Windows 10 V1909 on April the 1st, I guess ;-).