Canalys warns: Windows 10 support end will send at least 250 million PCs to the land fills

Windows[German]Regular support for Windows 10 will expire in October 2025. Microsoft does want to offer a paid support extension (ESU). However, it is currently unclear how much this will cost and how many users will take up the offer. Meanwhile, the analysis firm Canalys warns that at least 250 million PCs will end up as electronic waste when support for Windows 10 ends. Canalys criticizes the high hardware requirements for Windows 11, which are responsible for the fact that a switch to Windows 11 is not possible.


Windows 10 reaches EOL in October 2025

On October 14, 2025, Microsoft's support for Windows 10 (Home, Pro, Enterprise, Education) will end. This date has been communicated for some time. Roughly speaking, this means that private individuals and companies will need a successor solution of some kind by the end of October 2025. This is because there will be no more security updates for Windows 10 from November 2025. Only the so-called LTSC versions and the IoT counterparts of Windows 10 Enterprise will receive security updates until 2029 or Jan. 2032 (depending on the version).

A switch to the successor, Windows 11, is not possible for many devices. The reason is the hardware requirements prescribed by Microsoft, which are not met by many Windows 10 systems. I have already pointed this out several times here in the blog (see links at the end of the article). This has already led to a petition calling for an extension of support for Windows 10, because otherwise 400 million PCs will be thrown away (see Petition to Microsoft demands Windows 10 support extension).

Canalys warns of Windows 10 end of support

There is now a new calculation of how much electronic waste the end of support for Windows 10 will produce in fall 2025. Tobias pointed this out to me a few days ago in the following tweet, which was first picked up by Reuters in this article and is based on data from Canalys.

Windows 10 Support End creates electronic waste

Canalys Research assumes that around 240 million PCs will be disposed to land fills of at the end of 2025 due to the end of support for Windows 10 – even taking into account the support extension offered by Microsoft (see below). This is despite the fact that Windows 10 PCs are still fully functional and could be used for years to come, but will not receive security updates easily.


This could lead to a huge increase in landfill waste, it is said. Canalys Research puts the amount of electronic waste generated by these Windows 10 PCs at 480 million kilograms, which is equivalent to 320,000 cars.

Microsoft intends to provide security updates for Windows 10 systems until October 2028. However, this support extension will be subject to a charge and will presumably be due annually. It is not yet known what Microsoft will charge private individuals for a support extension. The exciting question is then whether users will equip their Windows 10 with an ESU license and continue to operate the devices for a few more years, or switch to new hardware with a pre-installed Windows 10 successor.

Canalys Research writes that if the pricing structure for extended Windows 10 support is in line with what Microsoft charges for Windows 7 and Windows Server 2008/R4, 2012/R2, migrating to newer PCs could be more cost-effective than buying ESU support. Then, according to Canalys, the number of older PCs being scrapped could even increase. It could be a good 400 million or more PCs that end up on the land fill.

Windows 10 end of support and the ESU program

In the blog post Windows 10: Surprise, there is an ESU support extension; also for private users, I addressed the topic of the end of support for Windows 10 and the Extended Security Update (ESU) solution announced by Microsoft. At present, it is only clear that Microsoft will offer a paid support extension for Windows 10 for companies and, for the first time, also for private users. The machines in question will then continue to receive security updates until October 2028 at the latest.

However, the prices and modalities for this ESU support extension have not yet been determined. With the prices that were called up for Windows 7 SP1 for the annual ESU licenses, after two to three years you have already paid Microsoft the equivalent of a cheap PC.

It can also be assumed that the majority of private users won't give a damn about the end of support for Windows 10. They will simply continue to use their devices, even without security updates – which will be a nightmare. It was precisely for these reasons that Microsoft took control of updates for Windows 10 away from users and introduced the concept of feature updates. The operating system should be continuously upgraded to new versions, which then receive security updates.

This principle has now been overturned by Microsoft with the end of support for Windows 10. It remains to be seen what Microsoft will announce in this regard in 2024 and how this will be implemented. For example, there is a risk that Microsoft will link the ESU license to a Microsoft 365 subscription. It remains exciting, and users should look for alternatives to Windows 11 in good time.

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One Response to Canalys warns: Windows 10 support end will send at least 250 million PCs to the land fills

  1. Chris Pugson says:

    I hope that the EU is taking note of Microsoft's use of its monopoly powers to force its customers, especially home users, to obey its will. Elderly users are at an especial disadvantage and might be forced off-line as a result.

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